S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 18/9/26

***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***

MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS

MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400

MONTHLY RANGE RES 7882 SUP 7490

WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7550/40

WEEKLY RANGE RES 7762/86 SUP 7538/46

DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7680/90

GLOBEX RANGE SUP 7682 RES 7741

2 SIGMA RANGE SUP 7652 RES 7771

GAMMA FLIP 7698

DELTA FLIP 7721

PUT WALLS 7614/7645

CALL WALLS 7722 / 7750

UNFILLED GAPS 7541

DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7699

WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7717

MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542

VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.7  

VVIX / VIX Tension Building (5–6 Range): A VVIX-to-VIX ratio of 5.91 sits right in the historical sweet spot for building market tension.

PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS 

LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM  DBBZ TARGET DAILY RANGE RES

***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***

(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)

SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 1.15 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.

JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950

DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]

Notes On Structure Implications

Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.

One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.

One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.

GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS

THE TAKE: MARKET STAGES SHARP RELIEF RALLY AS OIL & YIELDS PULL BACK

US equities closed sharply higher, with the S&P 500 recording its second-best session of September (+114 bps to 7,637). S&P MOC imbalance finished at $4.3B to BUY. Broad-based strength (292 S&P names green) was led by MegaCap Tech and AI leaders following yesterday's Fed rate hike digest.

Treasury yields pulled back (US 10-Year -8.8 bps to 4.9344%), and WTI Crude eased -1.13% to $101.26/bbl on reports that China requested Iran restrain Houthi actions, alongside potential upcoming talks with Middle East leaders regarding Saudi pipeline restoration. Concurrently, GS Economics updated its outlook to project another 25 bp rate hike at the October FOMC meeting, while maintaining a 3.25–3.50% terminal rate and adding a third rate cut in March 2028 (joining Sept/Dec 2027).

MARKET SUMMARY & ASSET BREAKDOWN

  • S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 7,637.00 (+1.14%) | VIX collapsed -12.82% to 15.44 | MOC $4.3B to BUY | Implied move through tomorrow's expiry: 0.57%

  • Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 29,446.00 (+1.73%) | Led by MegaCap Tech (GSTMTMEG +1.68%) and AI Semis (GSCBSMHX +3.48%)

  • Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,874.00 (+0.55%) | Underperformed mega-caps; RUT fixed strike vols aggressively offered across the curve

  • Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 51,778.00 (+0.61%) | Lagged tech-heavy indices

  • US 10-Year Treasury: Yield at 4.9344% (-8.8 bps) | Pulls back from 5.0%+ cycle highs post-Fed

  • WTI Crude: Price at $101.26 (-1.13%) | Eased on diplomatic headline relief

  • Gold: Price at $4,344.00 (+1.89%) | Strong rebound as yields and USD eased

  • Bitcoin: Price at $76,649.00 (+0.72%) | Stabilized in line with broader risk appetite

  • CBOE VIX: Closed at 15.44 (-12.82%) | Aggressive front-end volatility crush; skew steepening completely reversed

FACTOR PERFORMANCE & INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS

  • Factor Outperformance: High-velocity and momentum baskets surged:

    • 12-Month Winners (GSPRHIMO): +3.76%

    • AI Semiconductors (GSCBSMHX): +3.48%

    • Most Rolling Short (GSCBMSAL): +3.60% (Squeezier tone)

    • AI Leaders (GSX1AIL1): +1.97%

  • Prime Brokerage Positioning: TMT remains the most net-bought US sector over the past month. Mag 7 net allocation has climbed to ~20% (95th percentile 3-year), up from a YTD low of 14% in June.

  • Desk Activity (+586 bps to BUY / 4/10 Rating):

    • Asset Managers (LOs): +$396M better to buy (demand in macro products, tech, and industrials vs. light supply in discretionary and energy).

    • Hedge Funds: +$658M better to buy (demand in tech, consumer discretionary, industrials, and financials vs. macro product supply).

CTA THRESHOLDS & DERIVATIVES COLOR

  • CTA Threshold Cross: S&P 500 rallied above the short-term CTA trigger level (7,633), expected to reduce systematic supply in the near term.

  • Dealer Gamma Positioning: Currently 6/10. Dealers turn longer gamma on a further +1% move (8/10) and drop to 3/10 on a -1% move.

  • Option Flow Highlights:

    • 2Oct Expiry Activity: GS customer bought 11k QQQ 2Oct26 690 Puts ($2.96) and 8k SMH 2Oct26 530 Puts before the close.

    • AI Call Buying: Large institutional call buying across AI infrastructure names (MRVL, MU, SNDK).