Daily Market Outlook, February 9, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, February 9, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Minute…
Asian markets soared to record highs as risk assets, including tech stocks and Bitcoin, rallied following Wall Street's strong finish last Friday. Precious metals like gold and silver also joined the upward trend, adding to the optimism. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index surged by 2.4%, hitting an all-time peak, while Japan's Nikkei 225 climbed an impressive 5.7% after Prime Minister Takaichi's groundbreaking election victory. South Korea's Kospi Index, a favourite for AI-focused investments, jumped 4.2%. This comes on the heels of U.S. indices gaining around 2% on Friday, recovering some of their earlier losses. Momentum is expected to persist as European equity futures point to further gains. Bitcoin rebounded from its recent dip, mirroring the positive sentiment seen in gold and silver, which have been rising alongside equities this year. In currency news, the Japanese Yen gained strength against the Dollar following Takaichi's win, pulling away from levels that previously hinted at intervention. Traders are closely watching the Yen's performance, especially after it hit its weakest point since 2024 earlier this year at 159.45 per Dollar. Meanwhile, fluctuations in Japanese government bond yields added intrigue to the market dynamics. Thailand also saw its currency, the Baht, climb higher after the country's conservative ruling party secured an unexpectedly large victory in the elections, adding yet another layer of excitement to the region's financial landscape.
The UK’s neutral rate aside, another key factor in calibrating interest rates is the lag in monetary policy effects. During the recent tightening phase, monetary transmission issues were evident. In 2023-2024, tighter policy surprisingly benefited households due to the slower pass-through to mortgage rates compared to the faster rise in deposit interest, coupled with lower debt levels and higher savings. Monetary effects only became restrictive in early 2023, amplified by rising average mortgage rates despite rate cuts. Near-term rate cuts could act as a macro headwind, as benefits would only materialise
when borrowing costs drop below the current average mortgage rate (3.77%) without reducing interest income—possibly around 3%. For BoE policy, given the minimal short-term economic impact of cuts and the economy’s sub-1% growth, delaying action risks an inflation undershoot and unnecessary pressure on growth.
The upcoming week will focus on US economic data, impacted by the delayed employment report (Wed) due to the brief government shutdown. This includes annual benchmark revisions, with a potential ~900k downward adjustment to March employment levels, signaling a cooling job market. January CPI (Fri) may show a slight decline from 2.7% y/y, while retail sales and the Q4 employment cost index (Tue) are also due. The Supreme Court's tariff ruling and Warsh’s confirmation process might draw attention. In the UK, Q4 GDP (Thu) will offer insights against the BoE’s 0.2% q/q forecast, with MPC member Mann speaking (Mon). In the eurozone, Q4 GDP (Fri) is expected, though surprises are unlikely after the +0.3% q/q flash estimate.
Overnight Headlines
Japan’s Takaichi Scores Landslide Win In Election Gamble
Warsh Call For Fed-Treasury Accord Stirs Debate In $30T Bond Market
UK Jobs Market Is Moving Past The Worst, Recruiters Say
UK’s FCA Plans To Publish All Trading Data For London-Listed Shares
China Is Pumping Cash To Fill A $456B Liquidity Shortfall
Australia Places Tariff On Chinese Steel Frames, Citing Dumping
Samsung Stock Rises After Report On Mass Production Of AI Chips
Goldman Traders Warn Stock Selling Isn’t Over In Choppy Market
BTC Loses Trump-Era Gains As Crypto Volatility Signals Uncertainty
EU To Revive Campaign For Bank Deposit Guarantee Scheme
UK Prime Minister Starmer’s Top Aide Resigns Amid Epstein Fallout
Ukraine Urges Speedy Peace Talks, Says Only Trump Can Broker Deal
Iran Insists On Right To Enrichment, Ready For Confidence-Building
Gold Rises Amid Growing US-Iran Tensions
FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut
(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)
EUR/USD: 1.1900 (EU3.37b), 1.2020 (EU973m), 1.1375 (EU872.8m)
USD/JPY: 157.10 ($823.6m), 155.00 ($706.6m), 157.50 ($450.2m)
AUD/USD: 0.6900 (AUD1.56b), 0.6860 (AUD1.29b)
USD/BRL: 5.6600 ($397.5m)
USD/KRW: 1450.00 ($313.1m)
USD/CAD: 1.4000 ($591.4m), 1.3800 ($439.7m), 1.3625 ($420m)
GBP/USD: 1.2600 (GBP423.8m), 1.3050 (GBP400m), 1.3250 (GBP398.1m)
EUR/GBP: 0.8680 (EU404m)
CFTC Positions as of February 7th:
Speculators are making moves in the Treasury futures market! In the latest update, they’ve ramped up their net short positions across several categories. For CBOT US 5-year Treasury futures, the net short position surged by 67,934 contracts, reaching a total of 2,158,980 contracts. Similarly, CBOT US 10-year Treasury futures saw an increase of 3,263 contracts, pushing the net short position to 729,414. The 2-year Treasury futures took an even bigger leap, with speculators adding 128,603 contracts to hit a new total of 1,347,602.There was a slight trimming in the UltraBond Treasury futures net short position, which dropped by 4,382 contracts to settle at 269,089. Meanwhile, CBOT US Treasury bonds futures saw a modest rise of 5,437 contracts, bringing the net short position to 13,604.
Equity futures, speculators in equity funds boosted their net short positions on S&P 500 CME futures by 17,266 contracts, now totaling 437,953 contracts. However, equity fund managers showed a more bullish outlook, increasing their net long positions by 17,515 contracts to reach an impressive 927,508.
In currencies and Bitcoin, the latest data shows Bitcoin holding steady with a net long position of 1,008 contracts. The Swiss franc posted a net short position of -40,717 contracts, while the British pound recorded a net short position of -13,911 contracts. The euro stood out with a strong net long position of 163,361 contracts. Finally, the Japanese yen showed a net short position of -19,222 contracts.
Technical & Trade Views
SP500
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 6900 Target 6970
Below 6890 Target 6840
EURUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 1.1860 Target 1.1930
Below 1.1840 Target 1.1750
GBPUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 1.3635 Target 1.3760
Below 1.3625 Target 1.35
USDJPY
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 154.35 Target 157.50
Below 153.50 Target 151
XAUUSD
Daily VWAP Bearish
Weekly VWAP Bullish
Above 4850 Target 5100
Below 4400 Target 4200
BTCUSD
Daily VWAP Bullish
Weekly VWAP Bearish
Above 71k Target 75k
Below 70k Target 53k
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Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!